Nasdaq 100 faces renewed selling pressure below key moving averages

The recent weakness marks a shift from the bullish structure observed earlier in October

[SINGAPORE] The Nasdaq 100 has experienced a deterioration in its short-term technical outlook after breaking below key Fibonacci support and its 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs).

The index had previously rebounded from its September lows, raising hopes of a renewed advance toward record highs.

However, the latest pullback suggests that selling pressure has returned, with the index now trading below important technical indicators that previously supported its recovery.

The recent weakness marks a shift from the bullish structure observed earlier in October.

Based on Fibonacci extensions drawn from the March-to-July 2026 advance, the index has now slipped below the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci level near 29,035. This breakdown signals weakening momentum and raises the risk of further downside if buyers fail to reclaim the lost support level.

The index also broke below both the 50-day and 100-day SMAs after Oct 16 and has remained beneath them, turning these moving averages into near-term resistance levels.

From a technical perspective, the first resistance zone lies between 29,600 and 29,800, where the 50-day and 100-day SMAs are positioned. A recovery above this zone would indicate a return of buying interest and could help stabilise the index following its recent decline.

However, unless the Nasdaq 100 can reclaim both moving averages, the short-term outlook is likely to remain cautious, with rallies potentially facing renewed selling pressure.

Should the index break above the initial resistance zone, the next hurdle would be the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci extension level near 30,175. A sustained move above this level would provide stronger evidence that the recent correction is losing momentum.

Further upside would then bring the 50 per cent Fibonacci extension level near 31,096 into focus, representing a more significant recovery target.

These levels will be important in determining whether the index can resume its broader advance or remain trapped in a corrective phase.

On the downside, the first support level is located near 28,500, corresponding to the recent low recorded in September 2026. This level will be important in determining whether the current pullback remains contained or develops into a deeper correction.

A decisive break below 28,500 could expose the index to the 200-day SMA near 28,000, which represents a key longer-term trend indicator. As the 200-day SMA often serves as a reference for the broader market trend, a sustained move below it would signal a more significant deterioration in the technical outlook.

Should selling pressure intensify further, the next major support would be near 27,200, corresponding to the low recorded in July 2026. A decline towards this level would erase a larger portion of the recovery from the March lows and raise concerns that the broader uptrend is losing momentum.

Despite the recent weakness, the longer-term outlook has not yet been decisively invalidated. The 200-day SMA and the July low remain important reference points for assessing the underlying trend.

However, the break below the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci level and the loss of both the 50-day and 100-day SMAs suggest that the index requires renewed buying momentum to restore its bullish structure.

Investors should also monitor corporate earnings, interest-rate expectations, and broader market sentiment, as these factors could influence whether the correction deepens or stabilises.

In summary, the Nasdaq 100 faces a more challenging technical environment. The breakdown below 29,035 and the 50-day and 100-day SMAs has weakened its near-term outlook. The 29,600 to 29,800 resistance zone is the first hurdle for any recovery, followed by 30,175 and 31,096.

On the downside, 28,500 is the immediate support to watch, followed by the 200-day SMA near 28,000 and the July low near 27,200. Until the index reclaims its key moving averages, further consolidation or downside pressure remains a possibility.

Source: The Business Times https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/nasdaq-100-faces-renewed-selling-pressure-below-key-moving-averages