Sarawak dissolves its assembly. Along with Melaka, Anwar now faces grim state polls prospects

KUALA LUMPUR – Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim faces dim electoral prospect in Sarawak after a state assembly dissolution paves way for a state election, which will follow the Melaka state election in November.

Sarawak state legislative assembly is dissolved effective on Oct 26, after Premier Abang Johari Openg announced it on Oct 23. As Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) chairman, Abang Johari commanded a supermajority in the 82-seat legislature prior to dissolution.

This is set put another pressure on Anwar’s coalition Pakatan Harapan (PH), which is still reeling from losses in Johor and Negeri Sembilan. PH held just two seats in Sarawak, both represented by its cornerstone Chinese-dominant Democratic Action Party (DAP).

“As we approach the completion of this term, it is only appropriate that a new mandate from the people is obtained,” Abang Johari told media in Kuching on Oct 23.

The announcement came ahead of the Melaka state election’s Nomination Day on Oct 31. Voters in the southern state of Peninsular Malaysia will go to the ballots on Nov 14.

These state battles come ahead of a looming national deadline as Anwar must call Malaysia’s federal election by February 2028.

But Anwar must first clear a crucial parliamentary hurdle on Oct 29 when lawmakers are scheduled to vote on the 2027 budget. In a Parliamentary democracy, failing to pass a Supply Bill amounts to a loss of confidence in the government, potentially triggering Anwar’s resignation or early national polls.

Will PH reverse its streak?

Analysts predicted that the losing streak will continue for PH, noting that the federal ruling coalition is outmatched by incumbent giants GPS in East Malaysia and Barisan Nasional (BN) in Melaka.

Commenting on PH’s chances in Sarawak,political analyst Phoon Wing Keong said the ruling GPS holds the upper hand. This is bolstered by its record of winning federal revenue concessions, asserting petroleum mining rights and championing progressive language policies.

“This resonates with voters across the board. Even urban Chinese voters favour GPS, especially after the state government waived the Malay-language requirement for Unified Examination Certificate (UEC) holders entering state universities,” Phoon, who is Huayan Policy Institute head, told The Straits Times.

“Sarawakians generally value keeping their distance from Peninsular race-based politics.”

On Oct 13, Sarawak Deputy Education Minister Annuar Rapaee confirmed that UEC holders from private Chinese secondary schools do not need a Malay Language pass to qualify for the state’s free tertiary education initiative. The decision was a sharp contrast to Peninsular Malaysia’s mandatory language prerequisite for public university admissions.

Similarly, Asia Group Advisors political risk consultant Kamles Kumar said GPS has skilfully framed itself as the champion of Sarawakian interests regardless of the federal government in power.

“The real test is whether DAP and PH can convince voters that having an opposition voice in the state assembly still matters,” Kamles told ST.

Sunway University political analyst Wong Chin Huat noted that DAP and PH risk being wiped out in Sarawak, as the current GPS administration lacks the graft baggage that plagued former chief minister Taib Mahmud in 2006 and 2011.

State opposition representation peaked at 15 seats in 2011 before tumbling to two in 2021.

“DAP needs to answer a question before the state nationalism tide: does Sarawak still need democracy when it is fighting to get more power and resources from Putrajaya?” Wong asked.

“The past record is depressing – up until 2006, Sarawakians, including urbanites, thought that Taib’s corruption was tolerable or perhaps even unimportant as long as UMNO could be kept out.”

Sturdier Chinese support in Melaka

Meanwhile in Melaka, BN outgoing chief minister Ab Rauf Yusoh dissolved the state assembly on Sept 22 with 28 state seats are up to contest.

Melaka BN unveiled candidates for 21 state seats on Oct 24, leaving the remaining seven to Perikatan Nasional (PN) in southern Peninsular Malaysia.

Like BN, PH announced on Oct 24 that it will contest 21 seats in Melaka. The political grapevine suggests the remaining seven seats were left to Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia – a component party of Perikatan Nasional (PN) that has clashed with coalition linchpin Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS).

Sunway University’s Wong noted that PH is in a vulnerable position in Melaka as well, currently holding just five seats. Four of those was held by DAP, and another by Parti Amanah Negara.

“I expect DAP to hold on to its four strongholds in Melaka, while (Melaka PH chairman) Adly Zahari could lose his incumbent seat of Bukit Katil to the BN-PN pact,” said Wong.

“PH will likely remain roughly a status quo like Negeri Sembilan, unlike Johor, where PH – and particularly DAP – lost substantial ground.”

PH maintained firmer Chinese and Indian voter backing in Negeri Sembilan than in Johor. This is despite BN and PN consolidating Malay-Muslim support in July 2026 to slash PH’s Johor seats from 12 to eight and deepening their pact in August 2026 to topple PH in Negeri Sembilan.

Huayan’s Phoon said Melaka PH holds sturdier Chinese support after taking a stand against the BN-led state administration in July 2026 over legislation to appoint nominated assemblymen.

The fallout saw PH relinquish one state executive councillor (exco) post, two deputy exco roles and the deputy speakership.

“This prompted DAP and PH to pull out of the Melaka government. Furthermore, DAP secretary-general Anthony Loke’s willingness to resign from cabinet over Najib Razak’s house arrest pardon offers added insulation in holding Chinese votes alongside their traditional base,” he told ST.

However, Phoon cautioned that Parti Bersama Malaysia – a splinter party that broke away from Anwar’s party PKR – could act as a spoiler in the coalition’s bid to retain its seats.

Led by Anwar’s former lieutenant, Rafizi Ramli, Bersama announced its slate of 15 candidates and began ground campaigning in August 2026, two months ahead of both PH and BN.

“Bersama may split PH votes because they are better prepared,” said Phoon.

Source: The Straits Times https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/sarawak-dissolves-its-assembly-along-with-melaka-anwar-now-faces-grim-state-polls-prospects?ref=latest